Articles
Beating the House
A look at betting strategies – The Martingale system
a.k.a. the ‘double-up’
Doubling up after a loss can be tempting for all of us. The
chance to win back your losses plus win your initial wager
will get the butterflies going even in the most seasoned
bettors bellies.
The Martingale system advocates doubling the amount risked
after every loss, so that the first win will cover previous
losses plus win a profit equal to the original bet. The
system was seen as a sure thing by its proponents because a
bettor with a big enough bankroll will eventually hit a
winner, cover his losses and win the original stake amount.
Is the Martingale system the answer to bringing down the
house? Hardly. The underlying logic behind the system is
flawed because the Martingale doesn’t offer bettors any long
term mathematical advantage over placing random bets.
Another reason the Martingale system won’t be paying your
mortgage and car payments anytime soon is you don’t have the
bankroll to back you up. Unless you’re Billy Walters, the
exponential growth of the bet amount will quickly bankrupt
you doubling up and chasing your losses.
No bettor has infinite wealth, and the exponential growth of
the bet amount leads Martingale followers to lose more big
bets. So while the Martingale strategy was seen as a sure
thing by its proponents, it has bankrupted those who
practice it.
This statement of fact begs the question: How did the
Martingale system gain a following? Furthermore, why do
bettors casino players keep playing if they cannot gain an
advantage over the house edge?
The answer is mathematical variance. It is possible to
temporarily avoid an inevitable losing streak ie. ‘variance
from the expected negative return’. Another reason is that
it’s possible to be ahead even if a Martingale system bettor
has lost the majority of his bets since they always win a
profit regardless of how many losses they are chasing.
Let’s look at the Martingale system in practice in the
casino classic Roulette. Many gamblers think the likelihood
of losing 6 bets in a row is very remote, so with a
sufficient bankroll and some intestinal fortitude, a
Martingale system bettor will be ahead playing Roulette,
assuming they are betting red/black or even/odd.
The unfortunate reality is losses of 6 (or more) in a row
are much more common than the average bettor thinks. When
you play more and more spins, the odds of losing 6 (or more)
in a row increases quickly.
The odds of losing at roulette are 52.56%. If you play a
total of 6 spins, the odds of losing 6 times are only
2.125%, but if you play more and more spins, the odds of
losing 6 times in a row begin to increase.
• In 68 spins there is a 50.3% chance that you will lose 6
times in a row at roulette.
• In 150 spins there is a 80.6% chance that you will lose 6
times in a row at roulette.
• In 250 spins there is a 95.3% chance that you will lose 6
times in a row at roulette.
From wikipedia.com:
‘To double the initial bankroll of 6,300 with initial bets
of 100 would require a minimum of 63 spins (in the unlikely
event you win every time), and a maximum of 378 spins ( in
the equally unlikely event that you win every single round
on the sixth spin). The required number will more than
likely be more than 150 spins. So many gamblers believe that
they can play the Martingale strategy with very little
chance of failure long enough to double their bankroll.
However, the odds of losing 6 in a row are 80.6% out of 150
spins.’
This mathematical statement of fact is why casinos welcome
players that chase losses by doubling up. While these
Martingale strategy players may pose a risk to the house in
the short-run, the odds are very high (in our Roulette
example, 80%) they will bust before they do any damage, and
even higher that they will go bankrupt over the long-run.
Sources: wikipedia, frankrosenthal.com |
